Some positive signs about U.S. soybean sales to China began to emerge late this week, but questions remain about China's commitments. Speculation about an aid package for farmers is also growing.
The soybean market has been on a solid bull run since mid-October with the active January contract rallying as much as $1.20 per bushel, bottom to top, during that time. The rally was certainly helped along by optimism that a trade deal could be worked out with China. That deal was verbally agreed to more than a week ago. However, can the ongoing rally hold up or even extend without concrete evidence that China will indeed adhere to the promise of buying 440 mb by the end of December?
Producers face decisions about expanding herds amid declining cattle numbers. Replacement heifers should reach puberty early, breed easily and match production environments for long-term profitability.
Five of eight fertilizer prices rose in early November, with anhydrous up 4%. All fertilizers are higher compared to last year.
President Donald Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs is being challenged in the Supreme Court while the administration says tariffs are vital to economic security. Some farmers are raising concerns but didn't file briefs in the major court cases.
The best way to manage soybean cyst nematode (SCN) is to rotate varieties with different resistance genetics; but first you need to know what is in that variety.
The president and CEO of ADM said farmers are reluctant to sell more than hand-to-mouth right now until they see better basis and more stability around policies such as biofuel decisions that remain up in the air.
We'll see how commodity markets respond to any additional details of a trade deal with China, also watch for details on USDA support payments and how those pan out after said trade deal. Also, parts of U.S. and Canada will see several clipper weather systems pass through.
The October prices for corn and soybean contracts both averaged lower than the February price discovery period. Price protection in crop insurance policies will use the February price guarantees of $4.70 a bushel for corn and $10.54 for soybeans.
